Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Monday, January 22, 2018

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 4 / 2018

In the Currency Strength table, the GBP was the strongest currency while the USD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the GBP gaining 4 points while the JPY and NZD lost 2 points.

On a week to week basis the AUD and NZD showed a very good performance while the USD and CAD showed a very weak performance. When looking at the development at the end of last week, the GBP 
performed very well.
The EUR, JPY and CHF remained Neutral last week. The EUR remains interesting being a Strong currency.

Although some good performing currencies may have lost points they remain interesting when looking at all the currencies in the table as a whole. Same for the weak currencies that may have gained points. That is why the Classification of currencies and the Currency Score comparison are important also. We will look at this in more detail.


 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog.


Average 13 wks. Score

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see the currencies grouped together according to their classification.
There may be some doubt and in that case it could be a currency that will change its classification in the coming weeks. Such currencies are the USD and CAD, these changed classification last week.

  • Strong - We can see that the EUR and GBP are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies around an Average 13 wks. Score of 5,9 to 6,3.
  • Neutral - The AUD and CAD are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,3 to 4,6.
  • Weak - The USD, JPY, NZD and CHF are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 3,4 to 4.

The AUD and USD are close with their Score and it may cause these currencies to change Classification again in the near future. For now it seems that this is the best subdivision


Classification review

This week we take a look at the Classification changes.

  • The USD is showing weakness on a structural basis in the last 10 Weeks with just one high Score of 6. Especially last 5 Weeks it made a slide to the lowest Scores of the range.
  • The CAD is going from the lower range to the upper range for the second time in a few months. For now it is a Neutral currency but this may change if the currency continues to move as it did in the last period. However, in general the CAD has shown a strong performance as can be seen in the chart below. There was only a short period when it went below a Score of 4.
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR and GBP. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: AUD and CAD. The preferred range is 5 to 6.
Weak: USD, JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.


Currency Score Comparison

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.


Putting the pieces together
Based on the analysis of this article it seems that going long with the GBP, AUD and EUR may offer the best opportunities.
For going short, the USD, CAD and to a lesser extent the CHF seem to offer good opportunities.

The NZD is a Weak currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go long with even though it showed a Strong or Neutral performance last week.


Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.