FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 5 / 2018

In the Currency Strength table, the CHF was the strongest currency while the USD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the CHF gaining 5 points while the EUR and GBP lost 2 points.

On a week-to-week basis, the CHF and AUD showed a very good performance and to a lesser extent the GBP and NZD.
The USD and CAD showed a very weak performance and to a lesser extent the EUR and JPY.

When looking at the development at the end of last week, the CHF and GBP performed very well and to a lesser extent the AUD. On the other hand, the USD and CAD kept performing weak and to a lesser extent the NZD.

Although some good performing currencies may have lost points they remain interesting when looking at all the currencies in the table as a whole. Same for the weak currencies that may have gained points. That is why the Classification of currencies and the Currency Score comparison are important also. We will look at this in more detail.


______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog.



_____________________________________

Average 13 wks. Score

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see the currencies grouped together according to their classification.
There may be some doubt and in that case it could be a currency that will change its classification in the coming weeks. Such currencies are the USD and CAD, these changed classification last week.

  • Strong - We can see that the EUR and GBP are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies around an Average 13 wks. Score of 5,9 to 6.
  • Neutral - The AUD and CAD are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,3 to 4,6.
  • Weak - The USD, JPY, NZD and CHF are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 3,6 to 4.



_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Strong currencies.

  • The GBP remains strong with recently dips to a Score of 4.
  • The EUR started to lose strength in the second week of December and continued to do so until now. With a Score of 3, it is now in the range of the Weak currencies. It remains a Strong currency for now because the Average 13 wks. is still very Strong and far from the Neutral currencies.
 Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR and GBP. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: AUD and CAD. The preferred range is 5 to 6.
Weak: USD, JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.




_____________________________________

Putting the pieces together
Based on the analysis of this article it seems that going long with the AUD and GBP may offer the best opportunities.
For going short, the USD and CAD seem to offer good opportunities.

The CHF is a Weak currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go long with even though it showed a Strong or Neutral performance last week.
The EUR is a Strong currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go short with even though it showed a Weak or Neutral performance last week.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.   

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 5 / 2018

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the CHF(4X) followed by the AUD(3X) and GBP(2X). The weaker currencies are the USD(4X) followed by the CAD(3X) and EUR(2X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:

  • USD/CHF with the AUD/CAD
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/CHF



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.




______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR and GBP. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: AUD and CAD. The preferred range is 5 to 6.
Weak: USD, JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in lower Time Frames than the 4 Hour chart. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.


When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Chart of the Week



The Chart for this week is the AUD/USD 4 Hour chart and the set-up is a Long Entry.
Price is clearly in an uptrend. A nice buy opportunity would be on pullback towards the Kijun-Sen and the yellow dotted horizontal line which seems to be a good Support/Resistance level.

  1. For a good entry, by preference:
    1. The PSAR should be positive in the Daily chart and favorable for long trades in the 4H. chart. It is positive in the Daily chart and even if it turns negative in the 4H. chart it is in favor of long positions.
    2. The pullback has still to take place and price should be gaining momentum before entering positions.
    3. The candlesticks should show a good pattern that confirms the entry. This could be e.g. one of the reversal Candlesticks patterns or a continuation pattern. Check e.g. the following links for more information: Bulkowski's Top 10 Reversal Candlesticks , Wikipedia Candlestick pattern or Investopedia Candlestick .
  2. The target should be, depending on the current set-up going long or short, below/above the latest high/low. This may be or become a resistance/support level and closing below/above that level is for that reason a good target.
  3. In case of a stronger pullback with price going far below/above the yellow dotted support line with the MACD not recovering the set-up is no more valid. A stop-loss should be placed below/above a recent top/bottom. These are levels where Resistance or Support may reside too.
  4. The MACD should show in the right direction strength in the MACD minus Signal, these are the Blue and Red bars. In case of an uptrend, the red bars should become smaller or the blue bars larger. In case of a downtrend, the red bars should become larger or the blue bars smaller. The MACD should stay above/below the zero line.
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide. For more information read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison" and the pages Explanation Articles.
  • The AUD is a Neutral currency and the USD a Weak currency. The Currency Score Difference is 6.
The set-up mentioned remains valid as long as the pair remains in the Top 10 of the coming Weekly Ranking and Rating lists and continues to comply with the point of the Comparison Table Guide mentioned above.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.   

Monday, January 22, 2018

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 4 / 2018

In the Currency Strength table, the GBP was the strongest currency while the USD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the GBP gaining 4 points while the JPY and NZD lost 2 points.

On a week to week basis the AUD and NZD showed a very good performance while the USD and CAD showed a very weak performance. When looking at the development at the end of last week, the GBP 
performed very well.
The EUR, JPY and CHF remained Neutral last week. The EUR remains interesting being a Strong currency.

Although some good performing currencies may have lost points they remain interesting when looking at all the currencies in the table as a whole. Same for the weak currencies that may have gained points. That is why the Classification of currencies and the Currency Score comparison are important also. We will look at this in more detail.


______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog.

_____________________________________

Average 13 wks. Score

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see the currencies grouped together according to their classification.
There may be some doubt and in that case it could be a currency that will change its classification in the coming weeks. Such currencies are the USD and CAD, these changed classification last week.

  • Strong - We can see that the EUR and GBP are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies around an Average 13 wks. Score of 5,9 to 6,3.
  • Neutral - The AUD and CAD are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,3 to 4,6.
  • Weak - The USD, JPY, NZD and CHF are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 3,4 to 4.

The AUD and USD are close with their Score and it may cause these currencies to change Classification again in the near future. For now it seems that this is the best subdivision



_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Classification changes.

  • The USD is showing weakness on a structural basis in the last 10 Weeks with just one high Score of 6. Especially last 5 Weeks it made a slide to the lowest Scores of the range.
  • The CAD is going from the lower range to the upper range for the second time in a few months. For now it is a Neutral currency but this may change if the currency continues to move as it did in the last period. However, in general the CAD has shown a strong performance as can be seen in the chart below. There was only a short period when it went below a Score of 4.
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR and GBP. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: AUD and CAD. The preferred range is 5 to 6.
Weak: USD, JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.

_____________________________________

Putting the pieces together
Based on the analysis of this article it seems that going long with the GBP, AUD and EUR may offer the best opportunities.
For going short, the USD, CAD and to a lesser extent the CHF seem to offer good opportunities.

The NZD is a Weak currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go long with even though it showed a Strong or Neutral performance last week.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.   

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 4 / 2018

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the GBP(4X) followed by the AUD(2X), EUR(2X) and NZD(2X). The weaker currencies are the CAD(4X) with the USD(4X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:

  • GBP/USD with the AUD/CAD
  • EUR/USD with the NZD/CAD



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR and GBP. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: AUD and CAD. The preferred range is 5 to 6.
Weak: USD, JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in lower Time Frames than the 4 Hour chart. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.





When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Chart of the Week





The Chart for this week is the AUD/CAD 8 Hour chart and the set-up is a Long Entry.
Price is clearly in an uptrend and broke through the latest highs from October, November and December 2017. Support is expected around this level and this is also where the yellow dotted line is on the chart. A nice buy opportunity would be on pullback towards the Kijun-Sen and the yellow dotted horizontal line which seems to be a good Support/Resistance level.

  1. For a good entry, by preference:
    1. The PSAR should be positive in the Daily chart and favorable for long trades in the 8H. chart. It is positive in the Daily chart and even if it turns negative in the 8H. chart it is in favor of long positions.
    2. The pullback has still to take place and price should be gaining momentum before entering positions.
    3. The candlesticks should show a good pattern that confirms the entry. This could be e.g. one of the reversal Candlesticks patterns or a continuation pattern. Check e.g. the following links for more information: Bulkowski's Top 10 Reversal Candlesticks , Wikipedia Candlestick pattern or Investopedia Candlestick .
  2. The target should be, depending on the current set-up going long or short, below/above the latest high/low. This may be or become a resistance/support level and closing below/above that level is for that reason a good target.
  3. In case of a stronger pullback with price going far below/above the yellow dotted support line with the MACD not recovering the set-up is no more valid. A stop-loss should be placed below/above a recent top/bottom. These are levels where Resistance or Support may reside too.
  4. The MACD should show in the right direction strength in the MACD minus Signal, these are the Blue and Red bars. In case of an uptrend, the red bars should become smaller or the blue bars larger. In case of a downtrend, the red bars should become larger or the blue bars smaller. The MACD should stay above/below the zero line.
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 2 of the Comparison Table Guide. For more information read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison" and the pages Explanation Articles.
  • The AUD is a Neutral currency and the CAD also. The Currency Score Difference is 5.
The set-up mentioned remains valid as long as the pair remains in the Top 10 of the coming Weekly Ranking and Rating lists and continues to comply with the point of the Comparison Table Guide mentioned above.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.   

Monday, January 15, 2018

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 3 / 2018

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the USD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the JPY gaining 5 points while the CAD lost 4 points.

On a week to week basis the NZD and AUD showed a very good performance while the USD and to a lesser extent the JPY and CHF showed a very weak performance. When looking at the development at the end of last week, the NZD 
and to a lesser extent the AUD continued to perform very well.On the other hand, the USD remained weak and so did the CHF.
The EUR remained Neutral last week and ended with a Score of 5. It is the highest Score from the group of Strong currencies and seems for that reason the best one from this group for the coming week.

Although some good performing currencies may have lost points they remain interesting when looking at all the currencies in the table as a whole. Same for the weak currencies that may have gained points. That is why the Classification of currencies and the Currency Score comparison are important also. We will look at this in more detail.




______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog.





_____________________________________

Average 13 wks. Score

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see the currencies grouped together according to their classification.
There may be some doubt and in that case it could be a currency that will change its classification in the coming weeks. Such a currency seems to be the CAD.

  • Strong - We can see that the EUR, GBP and CAD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies around an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,8 to 7.
  • Neutral - The USD and AUD are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 4 to 4,5.
  • Weak - The JPY, NZD and CHF are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 3,2 to 3,7.

The CAD showed some weakness last week with a low Score of 3. The Avg. 13 wks. is currently very low for a Strong currency compared to the other Strong currencies. The
The Avg. 13 wks. is close to the AUD, which is a Neutral currency.



_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Deviations.

  • The NZD and AUD showed in the last 4 weeks a lot of strength. The NZD is a weak currency and does not seem to become a Neutral or Strong currency in the coming period. The AUD, on the other hand, is a Neutral currency and if it keeps performing this well it may become a Strong currency in the coming period.
  • The USD showed a weak performance in the last 4 weeks. Although it seems to remain a Neutral currency for the moment, it is not that far from the strongest currency in the group of Weak currencies, which is the JPY.
 Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, GBP and CAD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: USD and AUD. The preferred range is 4 to 5.
Weak: JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.





_____________________________________

Putting the pieces together
Based on the analysis of this article it seems that going long with the AUD and EUR may offer the best opportunities.
For going short, the USD and to a lesser extent the CHF and JPY seem to offer good opportunities.
The CAD is a Strong currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go short with even though it showed a Weak or Neutral performance last week.

The NZD is a Weak currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go long with even though it showed a Strong or Neutral performance last week.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you. 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 3 / 2018

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(5X) followed by the AUD(2X). The weaker currencies are the USD(4X) followed by the CHF(3X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:

  • NZD/USD with the AUD/CHF
  • EUR/USD with the NZD/CHF


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, GBP and CAD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: USD and AUD. The preferred range is 4 to 5.
Weak: JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in lower Time Frames than the 4 Hour chart. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.




______________________________________

Chart of the Week



The Chart for this week is the AUD/USD 8 Hour chart and the set-up is a Long Entry.
Price is clearly in an uptrend and broke through the latest highs from October 2017. Support is expected around this level. A nice buy opportunity would be on the pullback towards the Kijun-Sen and the yellow dotted horizontal line which seems to be a good Support/Resistance level being at the level of the highs from October 2017.

  1. For a good entry, by preference:
    1. The PSAR should be positive in the Daily chart and favorable for long trades in the 8H. chart. It is positive in the Daily chart and even if it turns negative in the 8H. chart it is in favor of long positions.
    2. The pullback has still to take place and price should be gaining momentum before entering positions.
    3. The candlesticks should show a good pattern that confirms the entry. This could be e.g. one of the reversal Candlesticks patterns or a continuation pattern. Check e.g. the following links for more information: Bulkowski's Top 10 Reversal Candlesticks , Wikipedia Candlestick pattern or Investopedia Candlestick .
  2. The target should be, depending on the current set-up going long or short, below/above the latest high/low. This may be or become a resistance/support level and closing below/above that level is for that reason a good target.
  3. In case of a stronger pullback with price going far below/above the yellow dotted support line with the MACD not recovering the set-up is no more valid. A stop-loss should be placed below/above a recent top/bottom. These are levels where Resistance or Support may reside too.
  4. The MACD should show in the right direction strength in the MACD minus Signal, these are the Blue and Red bars. In case of an uptrend, the red bars should become smaller or the blue bars larger. In case of a downtrend, the red bars should become larger or the blue bars smaller. The MACD should stay above/below the zero line.
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 2 of the Comparison Table Guide. For more information read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison" and the pages Explanation Articles.
  • The AUD is a Neutral currency and the USD also. The Currency Score Difference is 6.
The set-up mentioned remains valid as long as the pair remains in the Top 10 of the coming Weekly Ranking and Rating lists and continues to comply with the point of the Comparison Table Guide mentioned above.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.   

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 2 / 2018

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the JPY was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the NZD gaining 4 points while the EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD lost 1 point.

On a week to week basis the NZD, AUD and to a lesser extent the CAD showed a very good performance while the USD, JPY and to a lesser extent the GBP showed a very weak performance. When looking at the development at the end of last week, the NZD, AUD and CAD continued to perform very well and the EUR  showed a good performance too.
On the other hand, the USD and JPY remained weak and so did the GBP and CHF.

Although some good performing currencies may have lost points they remain interesting when looking at all the currencies in the table as a whole. Same for the weak currencies that may have gained points. That is why the Classification of currencies and the Currency Score comparison are important also.

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 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog.

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Average 13 wks. Score

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see the currencies grouped together according to their classification.
There may be some doubt and in that case it could be a currency that will change its classification in the coming weeks. There are no such currencies at the moment.
  • Strong - We can see that the EUR, GBP and CAD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies around an Average 13 wks. Score of 5 to 7.
  • Neutral - The USD and AUD are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 4 to 4,7.
  • Weak - The JPY, NZD and CHF are grouped together around an Average 13 wks. Score of 2,7 to 3,7.

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Classification review

This week we take a look at the Classification changes.

  • The USD showed in the last 3 weeks weakness. It performed very well in the weeks before and changed Classification from Strong to Neutral.
  • The JPY and CHF showed a weak performance in the last 4 weeks. It did not perform very well in the weeks before and changed Classification from Neutral to Weak.
 Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, GBP and CAD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: USD and AUD. The preferred range is 4 to 5.
Weak: JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.



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Currency Score Comparison

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.



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Putting the pieces together

Based on the analysis of this article it seems that going long with the AUD, CAD and to a lesser extent with the EUR may offer the best opportunities.
For going short the JPY, USD and to a lesser extent the CHF seem to offer good opportunities.
The GBP is a Strong currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go short with even though it showed a Weak or Neutral performance last week.

The NZD is a Weak currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go long with even though it showed a Strong or Neutral performance last week.


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Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 2 / 2018

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(4X) followed by the CAD(3X) and the AUD(2X). The weaker currencies are the JPY(4X) followed by the USD(3X) and the CHF(2X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:
  • AUD/JPY with the USD/CAD
  • CAD/JPY with the NZD/CHF


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Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.



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For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, GBP and CAD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: USD and AUD. The preferred range is 4 to 5.
Weak: JPY, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in lower Time Frames than the 4 Hour chart. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


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Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


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Chart of the Week




The Chart for this week is the AUD/JPY 8 Hour chart and the set-up is a Long Entry.
Price is clearly in an uptrend and close to the highs of 27 October 2017. Some resistance is expected around this level. A nice buy opportunity would be on the pullback towards the Kijun-Sen and the yellow dotted horizontal line which seems to be a good Support/Resistance level. 
    1. For a good entry, by preference:
      1. The PSAR should be positive in the Daily chart and favorable for long trades in the 8H. chart. It is positive in the Daily chart and even if it turns negative in the 8H. chart it is in favor of long positions.
      2. The pullback has still to take place and price should be gaining momentum before entering positions.
      3. The candlesticks should show a good pattern that confirms the entry. This could be e.g. one of the reversal Candlesticks patterns or a continuation pattern. Check e.g. the following links for more information: Bulkowski's Top 10 Reversal Candlesticks , Wikipedia Candlestick pattern or Investopedia Candlestick .
    2. The target should be, depending on the current set-up going long or short, below/above the latest high/low. This may be or become a resistance/support level and closing below/above that level is for that reason a good target.
    3. In case of a stronger pullback with price going far below/above the yellow dotted support line with the MACD not recovering the set-up is no more valid. A stop-loss should be placed below/above a recent top/bottom. These are levels where Resistance or Support may reside too.
    4. The MACD should show in the right direction strength in the MACD minus Signal, these are the Blue and Red bars. In case of an uptrend, the red bars should become smaller or the blue bars larger. In case of a downtrend, the red bars should become larger or the blue bars smaller. The MACD should stay above/below the zero line.
    • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide. For more information read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison" and the pages Explanation Articles.
    • The AUD is a Neutral currency and the JPY a Weak currency. The Currency Score Difference is 5.
    The set-up mentioned remains valid as long as the pair remains in the Top 10 of the coming Weekly Ranking and Rating lists and continues to comply with the point of the Comparison Table Guide mentioned above.


    ______________________________________

    Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

    It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

    ______________________________________

    DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

    Wednesday, January 3, 2018

    Forex Strength And Comparison January 2018

    In the Currency Strength table, the GBP was the strongest currency while the JPY was the weakest. There were some significant changes last month with the AUD and NZD gaining 3 points while the CHF lost 3 points.

    On a month to month basis the GBP and CAD showed a very good performance while the USD and JPY showed a very weak performance. When looking at the development at the end of last month, the GBP and CAD continued to perform very well and the EUR  and AUD showed a good performance too.
    On the other hand, the 
    USD and JPY remained weak and so did the CHF.
    Based on this and the analysis of this article it seems that going long with the GBP or CAD and to a lesser extent with the EUR or AUD may offer the best opportunities. For going short the JPY offers a good opportunity. The USD is a Strong currency and for that reason, it seems not the best one to go short with even though it showed a weak performance last month. The CHF however, seems a good currency to go short with based on the Currency Score and weak performance of last month.



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     12 Months Currency Score Strength

    The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog.

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    Average 12 M. Score

    When looking at the Average 12 M. Score we can see the currencies grouped together according to their classification.
    There may be some doubt and in that case, it could be a currency that will change its classification in the coming months. There are no such currencies at the moment.
    • Strong - We can see that the USD, EUR, AUD and CAD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies around an Average 12 M. Score of 4,7 to 5,7.
    • Neutral - The GBP, CHF and NZD are grouped together around an Average 12 M. Score of 4.
    • Weak - The JPY is the only Weak currency with a Score around an Average 12 M. Score of 3,7.



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    Classification review

    This month we take a look at the Classification changes. As can be seen, the GBP showed a very good performance in the last 4 months and is currently the strongest currency. The AUD was a Neutral currency and is now a Strong Currency. However, the recovery seems fragile with only one good month lately with a Score of just 5. Based on the Avg. 12 M. it fits best in the group of Strong currencies but it is the weakest one of all the Strong currencies.
    Below you can see the Monthly Currency Score Chart with the 24 months' data as a reference.
    For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
    This classification was updated on 3 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
    Strong: USD, EUR, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
    Neutral: AUD, NZD, GBP. The preferred range is from 2 to 4.
    Weak: JPY, GBP. The preferred range is 1.



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    Currency Score Comparison

    The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information check the page Explanation Articles on my blog. For more information about the currency Score of this month, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.



    ______________________________________

    Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a month on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

    It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.

    ______________________________________

    DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone. The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

    Forex Metrics and Chart Month January 2018

    The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming month shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the GBP(5X) followed by the EUR(2X) with the CAD(2X). The weaker currencies are the JPY(4X) followed by the USD(3X).
    By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming month like e.g.:

    • GBP/JPY with the USD/CAD
    • GBP/USD with the EUR/JPY

    ______________________________________

    Ranking and Rating list

    Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every month the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared around the change of the month. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






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    For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
    This classification was updated on 3 January 2018 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
    Strong: USD, EUR, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
    Neutral: AUD, NZD, GBP. The preferred range is from 2 to 4.
    Weak: JPY, GBP. The preferred range is 1.

    When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
    With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


    ______________________________________

    Currency Score Chart

    The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




    When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


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    Chart of the Month




    The Chart for this month is the AUD/JPY Weekly chart.

    Price is clearly in an uptrend and made a high lately. It made a pullback towards the Ichimoku cloud and recovered. Price broke last week through an important resistance level, see the yellow dotted line. The PSAR turned also positive for taking long positions.
    A nice buy opportunity would be when the MACD crosses the signal line and this will be clear at the end of this week. As long as the MACD remains above the signal line and price remains above the Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and the Ichimoku cloud taking long positions seems a good opportunity.
    Taking long positions on the Daily chart seems a good opportunity too. This can be done based on pullbacks towards the Kijun-Sen as explained in several set-ups of my previous articles.

    • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide. For more information read my other Monthly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison".
    • The AUD is a strong currency and the JPY a Weak currency. The Currency Score Difference is 4.
    The set-up mentioned remains valid as long as the pair remains in the Top 10 of the coming Monthly Ranking and Rating lists and continues to comply with the point of the Comparison Table Guide mentioned above.


    ______________________________________

    Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a month on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

    It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.

    ______________________________________

    DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.