FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 31 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the USD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the GBP gaining 2 points and the CHF losing 2 points.. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 1 point.
Last week there was a Classification change and we will look at it at more detail in this article.



______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is 4 to 5.
Weak: USD, JPY, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the EUR, CHF and the NZD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies.
We can also see that the USD, JPY and GBP are also grouped together being all Weak currencies. The AUD gained some strength in the last 8 Weeks and the 
Average 13 wks. Score shows that this currency fits better in the group of neutral currencies so it changed Classification from Weak to Neutral. It is now together with the CAD in the group of Neutral currencies.




_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Strong currencies.As can be seen in the chart the NZD and EUR are on track with the EUR being a bit weaker. The CHF however, it showing weakness in the last 5 weeks and is making lower highs and lower lows. If it continues doing so in the coming weeks it may become a Neutral currency.Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.




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Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.






"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.



Comparison table Guide
  1. First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  2. Second, only equally classified currencies are approved when there is a positive Currency Score difference. Also here, the trend has to be confirmed again.
    The difference between point 2 and 1 is that the long trend is not clear with 2 equally qualified currencies because that pair is in a sideway market. For that reason, the Currency Score difference cannot have a negative difference. A positive difference confirms the momentum for a short revival.
  3. Third, only Neutral currencies are Approved against a better-classified currency when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 4. In the case of a currency worse classified, the Currency Score difference has to be at least -4.
    The above-mentioned situations applicable to this point may happen when there is a clear reversal and the chart is showing a new trend with good entries in the new direction. The difference between point 3 and the previous 2 points is that with point 3 a reversal in the whole market is possible when looking at all the currencies together. This gives a better chance when a trend reversal takes place compared to point 1 and 2!
  4. By preference, each currency should be selected for a trade with a score difference as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. However, these opportunities are rare and for that reason point 1 offers flexibility and is the best choice to trade, point 2 is the second best and point 3 is the third best choice.
  5. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. Even though currencies may be in the same category a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD, CAD and EUR.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
USD and GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
CAD and CHF.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 31/ 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(3X) with the CAD(3X) and the EUR(3X) . The weaker currencies are the USD(4X) followed by the CHF(3X) with the GBP(3X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:
  • NZD/USD with the EUR/GBP
  • USD/CAD with the GBP/NZD


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is 4 to 5.
Weak: USD, JPY, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Chart of the Week




The Chart for this week is the EUR/GBP Daily chart.
  1. Price is above the Tenkan-Sen and clearly in an uptrend, it is consolidating at the moment around the last top.
  2. A nice buy opportunity would be on pullback around the area where the Kijun-Sen is now and the yellow dotted line. This is around 0,8850 and 0,8870.
    The yellow dotted line is connecting recent highs, open, close and fractals and seems a support near the Kijun-Sen.
  3. The MACD should then go back to the signal line.
The PSAR is positive for taking long positions and the MACD is showing strength after a period of consolidation.
After the pullback around 0,8860 (+/- 10 Pips) the 4H. chart may offer good information for the entry price. There is then a range of +100 Pips to the last top and taking profit below that top seems realistic.
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide which you can also read here below.
    • First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  • The EUR is a Strong currency and the GBP a Weak currency, the Currency Score Difference is 3.
For more information about the "Comparison Table Guide" read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison".


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 30 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the CAD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the GBP and AUD loosing 3 points.. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 1 point.
As mentioned in the previous week several Neutral currencies were very close to becoming Weak currencies and we will look at these in more detail. There is also a Weak currency that changed classification.



______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 23 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: CAD. The preferred range is 5.
Weak: USD, JPY, GBP, AUD. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the EUR, CHF and the NZD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies.
There are a lot of Weak currencies which were Neutral currencies. These are the 
USD, JPY and GBP. These currencies were discussed in detail last week in the Classification Review and we will look at them again. With the very low Scores in the last 3 weeks these currencies made a dive in the Classification. As can be seen these currencies are grouped together in the range ofthe Average 13 wks. Score of  3,6 to 3,9.
The CAD however performed very well in the last 6 weeks and changed classification from Weak to Neutral. It is at the same time the only Neutral currency this week.


_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the changes in the Classification. As can be seen in the chart the JPY and the USD are showing a lot of weakness. These currencies started to show weakness in June and are not recovering. The GBP however seemed to make a recovery in the last weeks but it is this week the weakest currency of all.
The CAD was a Weak currency but is now a Neutral currency and as can be seen it showed a very strong performance in the last weeks.
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.








"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.


Comparison table Guide
  1. First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  2. Second, only equally classified currencies are approved when there is a positive Currency Score difference. Also here, the trend has to be confirmed again.
    The difference between point 2 and 1 is that the long trend is not clear with 2 equally qualified currencies because that pair is in a sideway market. For that reason, the Currency Score difference cannot have a negative difference. A positive difference confirms the momentum for a short revival.
  3. Third, only Neutral currencies are Approved against a better-classified currency when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 4. In the case of a currency worse classified, the Currency Score difference has to be at least -4.
    The above-mentioned situations applicable to this point may happen when there is a clear reversal and the chart is showing a new trend with good entries in the new direction. The difference between point 3 and the previous 2 points is that with point 3 a reversal in the whole market is possible when looking at all the currencies together. This gives a better chance when a trend reversal takes place compared to point 1 and 2!
  4. By preference, each currency should be selected for a trade with a score difference as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. However, these opportunities are rare and for that reason point 1 offers flexibility and is the best choice to trade, point 2 is the second best and point 3 is the third best choice.
  5. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. Even though currencies may be in the same category a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CAD, NZD and EUR.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, USD and JPY.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
CAD and CHF.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 30/ 2017

 The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the CAD(3X) with the NZD(4X) followed by the EUR(2X) . The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the USD(3X) and the JPY(2X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:
  • GBP/CAD with the EUR/GBP
  • NZD/USD with the CAD/JPY


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 23 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: CAD. The preferred range is 5.
Weak: USD, JPY, GBP, AUD. The preferred range is from 1 to 4.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.


When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Chart of the Week


The Chart for this week is the EUR/JPY Daily chart.

Price is clearly in an uptrend and at the moment consolidating after the pullback towards 128,60. Price may go back again to 128,60.
The PSAR is still not confirming to enter a long position. Once the PSAR changes to positive the 4H. chart may offer good information for the entry price.
 The MACD is also consolidating but this may become a higher bottom!
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide which you can also read here below.
    • First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  • The EUR is a Strong currency and the JPY a Weak currency, the Currency Score Difference is 3.
For more information about the "Comparison Table Guide" read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison".
______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 29 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the AUD was the strongest currency while the USD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the AUD gaining 4 points and the USD, EUR, CHF losing 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 1 point. Several Neutral currencies are very close to becoming Weak currencies and we will look at these in more detail.


______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 2 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: GBP, USD and JPY. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the EUR, CHF and the NZD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies.
The Neutral and Weak currencies are at the moment very close. However, the AUD is clearly the weakest of all but was the strongest currency of last week.
At the moment the Weak currencies are the AUD and CAD. The Neutral currencies are the USD, JPY and GBP. These 3 currencies are all very close to the CAD with their 
Average 13 wks. Score. The CAD also showed a very good performance in the last 3 weeks. It is very well possible that there are some classification changes in the coming weeks where the CAD may become a Neutral currency and some Neutral currencies may be classified as Weak.




_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Neutral currencies. As can be seen in the chart the JPY and the USD are showing a lot of weakness. These currencies started to show weakness in June and are not recovering. The GBP however, seems to make a recovery in the last weeks. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.


Comparison table Guide
  1. First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  2. Second, only equally classified currencies are approved when there is a positive Currency Score difference. Also here, the trend has to be confirmed again.
    The difference between point 2 and 1 is that the long trend is not clear with 2 equally qualified currencies because that pair is in a sideway market. For that reason, the Currency Score difference cannot have a negative difference. A positive difference confirms the momentum for a short revival.
  3. Third, only Neutral currencies are Approved against a better-classified currency when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 4. In the case of a currency worse classified, the Currency Score difference has to be at least -4.
    The above-mentioned situations applicable to this point may happen when there is a clear reversal and the chart is showing a new trend with good entries in the new direction. The difference between point 3 and the previous 2 points is that with point 3 a reversal in the whole market is possible when looking at all the currencies together. This gives a better chance when a trend reversal takes place compared to point 1 and 2!
  4. By preference, each currency should be selected for a trade with a score difference as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. However, these opportunities are rare and for that reason point 1 offers flexibility and is the best choice to trade, point 2 is the second best and point 3 is the third best choice.
  5. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. Even though currencies may be in the same category a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD and EUR.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
USD and JPY.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
AUD, CAD and CHF.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 29 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the AUD(4X) with the CAD(4X) . The weaker currencies are the USD(4X) followed by the JPY(2X)  and the CHF(2X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:
  • AUD/USD with the CAD/JPY
  • USD/CAD with the AUD/JPY


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.



______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 2 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: GBP, USD and JPY. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Chart of the Week

The Chart for this week is the USD/CAD Daily chart.


Price is clearly in a downtrend and trading on pullback may offer a good opportunity.
The PSAR changed last Friday and is confirming a continuation of the downtrend.
The next pullback could be around the Tenkan-Sen which is currently at 1.28291.
Just above that was a consolidation area with two Fractals (purple arrows) holding the price for a while from going down.
In the case of a pullback, the MACD will also recover around the Signal line.
Once the pullback has taken place the 4H. chart may offer good information for the entry price.
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 3 of the Comparison Table Guide which you can also read here below.
    • Third, only Neutral currencies are Approved against a better-classified currency when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 4. In the case of a currency worse classified, the Currency Score difference has to be at least -4.
      The above-mentioned situations applicable to this point may happen when there is a clear reversal and the chart is showing a new trend with good entries in the new direction. The difference between point 3 and the previous 2 points is that with point 3 a reversal in the whole market is possible when looking at all the currencies together. This gives a better chance when a trend reversal takes place compared to point 1 and 2!
    • The reversal mentioned here above is seen from a longer-term. In the short term, the trend is down as can be seen in the Daily chart.
  • The CAD is a Weak currency and the USD a Neutral currency. The Currency Score Difference is -6 so the strength of the reversal is strong.
For more information about the "Comparison Table Guide" read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison".


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 28 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the EUR was the strongest currency while the JPY was again the weakest. There were some changes last week with the GBP losing 3 points and the CHF gaining 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 1 point. There were a lot of classification changes last week and these are analyzed in more detail in this article.


______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 2 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: GBP, USD and JPY. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the EUR, CHF and the NZD are clearly grouped together as Strong currencies. The AUD and the CAD as Weak currencies and the Neutral currencies are the USD, JPY and the GBP. The latter has been 6 times weaker than the CAD, in the last 13 weeks, which is a Weak currency!


_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Weak currencies and the GBP. As can be seen in the chart below the GBP is showing weakness lately. It was the weakest currency in the last 5 weeks. If the currency remains this weak in the coming weeks it may become a Weak currency.
The AUD and the CAD are showing strength lately. The CAD is even the strongest this week. Both currencies are still too weak to become a Neutral currency in the coming weeks.Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.






"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

The points here below has been updated on 5 July 2017 to provide more trading opportunities.
It is for that reason more aggressive and the Charts are very important to support this approach.


Comparison table Guide
  1. First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  2. Second, only equally classified currencies are approved when there is a positive Currency Score difference. Also here, the trend has to be confirmed again.
    The difference between point 2 and 1 is that the long trend is not clear with 2 equally qualified currencies. These are both Strong currencies so that pair is in a side-way market. For that reason, the Currency Score difference cannot have a negative difference. A positive difference confirms the momentum for a short revival.
  3. Third, only Neutral currencies are Approved against a better-classified currency when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 4. In the case of a currency worse classified, the Currency Score difference has to be at least -4.
    The above-mentioned situations applicable to this point may happen when there is a clear reversal and the chart is showing a new trend with good entries in the new direction. The difference between point 3 and the previous 2 points is that with point 3 a reversal in the whole market is possible when looking at all the currencies together. This gives a better chance when a trend reversal takes place compared to point 1 and 2!
  4. By preference, each currency should be selected for a trade with a score difference as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. However, these opportunities are rare and for that reason point 1 offers flexibility and is the best choice to trade, point 2 is the second best and point 3 is the third best choice.
  5. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. Even though currencies may be in the same category a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
EUR, NZD and CHF.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
JPY, GBP, USD and AUD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
CAD.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Metrics and Chart Week 28 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the CAD(4X) followed by the EUR(3X) followed by the NZD(2X). The weaker currencies are the JPY(4X) followed by the GBP(3X) and the USD(2X).
By diversifying a nice combination can be traded in the coming week like e.g.:
  • GBP/CAD with the NZD/JPY
  • CAD/JPY with the EUR/GBP

______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 2 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: EUR, NZD and CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: GBP, USD and JPY. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Chart of the Week



The Chart for this week is the EUR/GBP Daily chart.
  1. Price found support in the area where the Kijun-Sen is at the moment.
    This support was a resistance in the period end of May and begin of June.
    There are many fractals (blue and purple arrows) showing significant highs and lows in that area.
  2. Price is now above the Tenkan-Sen but did not succeed yet to change the PSAR into a Long signal.
    It is however close to doing so and a pullback after that may be a good entry opportunity for a trade in the upcoming week.
    In that case the 4 Hour chart is the best one to use for the timing of the trade and a target below the recent Top seems realistic.
  3. The MACD is recovering and while it does so the rate may visit the most recent top.
  • This is a pair that fits best in Point 1 of the Comparison Table Guide which you can also read here below.
    • First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded. The Currency Score difference may be negative. In that case, the trade should be made after a pullback. In other words, a trade can then only take place after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  • The EUR is a Strong currency and the GBP a Neutral currency. The Currency Score Difference is 5 so the trend is strong.
For more information read my other Weekly article called the "Forex Strength and Comparison".
______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Forex Strength And Comparison for July 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the JPY was the weakest. There were some significant changes last month with the AUD and CAD gaining 4 points strength. The JPY lost 4 points and the CHF 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 2 points.




______________________________________

12 Months Currency Score Strength

The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the "12 months Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single month, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 12 months. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 12 months average, see the last row called "Avg. 12 M."
  3. The number of months that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 2 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: JPY, AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 12 M. Score the NZD is the strongest of all and the GBP the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. It is clear to see in the Avg. 12 M. values to what groups the currencies belong.
This is not the case for the CHF, it has now an Average 12 M. Score between the Neutral and Weak currencies. It is closer to the Neutral currencies and is now classified as such.





_____________________________________

Classification review

This month we take a look at the Strong currencies and the JPY which has changed from Strong to Neutral. The USD, NZD and JPY are most of the time at the Strong and Neutral range with sometimes having a dip to the Weak range. This is currently the case for the JPY.
The USD is also getting weaker in the last 2 months but has still an Average 12 M. Score in the range of the Strong currencies. If it stays this weak it may also become a Neutral currency.

The NZD is just recovering from a dip and showing good Scores in the last 2 months. It is now back again in the Strong range.
Below you can see the Monthly Currency Score Chart with the 24 months' data as a reference.







_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this month, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 3 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a month and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 12 months and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

The points here below have been updated on 5 July 2017 to provide more trading opportunities.
It is for that reason more aggressive and the Charts are very important to support this approach.


  1. First of all better-classified currencies in combination with weaker-classified currencies can always be traded after a pullback. A Currency Score difference may be negative. That is why a trade can take place only after a recovery and the main trend being confirmed again.
  2. Second, only equally classified currencies are approved when there is a positive Currency Score difference. Also here, the trend has to be confirmed again.
    The difference between point 1 and 2 above is that the long trend is not clear with 2 equally qualified currencies. For that reason, the Currency Score difference cannot have a negative difference.
  3. Third, only Neutral currencies are Approved against a better-classified currency when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 4 in the current month. This may be when there is a clear reversal and the chart is showing a new trend with good entries in the new direction.
    The difference between point 3 and the previous 2 points is that with point 3 a reversal in the whole market is possible when looking at all the currencies together. This gives a better chance when a trend reversal takes place compared to point 1 and 2!
  4. By preference, each currency should be traded as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. However, these opportunities are rare and for that reason point 1 offers flexibility and is the best choice to trade, point 2 is the second best and point 3 is the third best choice.
  5. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. Even though currencies may be in the same classification, a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "12 Months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD and AUD
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "12 Months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
JPY and GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
EUR, CAD and USD.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a month on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Weekly and Monthly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.




______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating And Score for July 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming month shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(3X) with the EUR(3X) followed by the CAD(2X). The weaker currencies are the JPY(4X) followed by the USD(3X) with the GBP(3X).
A nice combination for the coming month may be e.g:
  • EUR/JPY with the USD/CAD
  • NZD/JPY with the GBP/CAD
  • NZD/USD with the  EUR/GBP


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every month the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared around the change of the month. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.


______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 2 July 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: JPY, AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be traded in the Daily chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 3 Time Frames: the Monthly, Weekly and Daily. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.





When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a month on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Weekly and Monthly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.