FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 5 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table the NZD was the strongest currency while the EUR was the weakest. The CAD gained 6 points last week. The AUD lost 4 points and the EUR lost 3. All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 2 points.


______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD remains the strongest of all while the EUR remains the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. The only currency where this is not clear is the AUD with an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,3846. That is a score between the Neutral and Weak currencies.



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The Strong Currencies + CAD

The CAD is gaining a lot of strength and is getting more often in the range of the Strong currencies. The USD and NZD are remaining strong where the NZD is the stronger one lately. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.






_____________________________________
Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD, CAD and USD
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
EUR, JPY and GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. However, this week there are none.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD, NZD/JPY, GBP/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CHF and EUR/AUD.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 5 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: NZD(4X) followed by the CAD(3X) followed by the USD(2X). The weaker currencies are the EUR(4X) followed by the JPY(3X) and the GBP(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • NZD/JPY with the GBP/CAD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/CAD with the USD/JPY
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD, NZD/JPY, GBP/CAD, CAD/JPY and EUR/CHF. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. However, this week there are none.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 4 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table the AUD was the strongest currency for the second week while the CAD was the weakest. The CHF gained 3 points last week. The CAD lost 5 points and the JPY lost 3. All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 2 points.

A new page named Statistics and Probabilities has been added to my blog. Most important motive is to emphasize that "Statistics and Probabilities" are used in my Technical Analyses. It makes it clearer that the overviews provided in my articles are not based on certainties about the future because this is simply impossible. A professional Trader is aware of this but for who may believe that e.g. the "Currency Comparison Table" provided here below is a sure bet, by just trading the pairs with the highest Currency Score Difference, I recommend reading the new page "Statistics and Probabilities".



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD remains the strongest of all while the EUR remains the weakest. The currencies are nested around a certain level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. The only currency where this can be doubted is the AUD with an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,4615. That is a score between the Neutral and Weak currencies.




_____________________________________

The Weak Currencies

The EUR and the JPY are gaining strength in the last weeks but remain in the lower range. The highest score for the JPY was 5 and it went back down last week. The GBP had a strong period but has lost a lot of strength in the last period. However, it gained some strength last week going from 1 to 3. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.






_____________________________________
Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
AUD, NZD and CHF
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
CAD, JPY and GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
AUD, USD and CAD.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD, NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 4 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: AUD(4X) with the NZD(3X) followed by the USD(2X). The weaker currencies are the JPY(4X) followed by the CAD(3X) and the GBP(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/AUD with the EUR/CAD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/AUD
  • GBP/CAD with the EUR/NZD
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD, NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.

A new page named Statistics and Probabilities has been added to my blog. Most important motive is to emphasize that "Statistics and Probabilities" are used in my Technical Analyses. It makes it clearer that the overviews provided in my articles are not based on certainties about the future because this is simply impossible. A professional Trader is aware of this but for who may believe that e.g. the "Ranking and Rating list" provided here below is a sure bet, by just trading the pairs with the highest ranking, I recommend reading the new page "Statistics and Probabilities".



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the AUD, USD and CAD. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 3 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table the AUD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest for the second week. The AUD gained 4 points last week and the JPY gained 3. The USD and CHF lost 3 points. All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 2 points.

A new page named Statistics and Probabilities has been added to my blog. Most important motive is to emphasize that "Statistics and Probabilities" are used in my Technical Analyses. It makes it clearer that the overviews provided in my articles are not based on certainties about the future because this is simply impossible. A professional Trader is aware of this but for who may believe that e.g. the "Currency Comparison Table" provided here below is a sure bet, by just trading the pairs with the highest Currency Score Difference, I recommend reading the new page "Statistics and Probabilities".



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD remains the strongest of all while the EUR remains the weakest. The currencies are nested around a certain level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. The only currency where this can be doubted is the AUD with an Average 13 wks. Score of 4,2308. That is a score between the Neutral and Weak currencies.




_____________________________________

The Strong Currencies

The USD and the NZD are frequently switching places and the NZD is this week stronger again. Both currencies are very strong for a long time.Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.






_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
AUD, NZD and CAD
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, EUR and CHF.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
AUD, JPY and USD.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD and CAD/CHF.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.




______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 3 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: AUD(3X) with the NZD(3X) followed by the CAD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the EUR(3X) with the CHF(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/AUD with the EUR/CAD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/AUD
  • GBP/CAD with the EUR/NZD
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/USD and EUR/CAD. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.

A new page named Statistics and Probabilities has been added to my blog. Most important motive is to emphasize that "Statistics and Probabilities" are used in my Technical Analyses. It makes it clearer that the overviews provided in my articles are not based on certainties about the future because this is simply impossible. A professional Trader is aware of this but for who may believe that e.g. the "Ranking and Rating list" provided here below is a sure bet, by just trading the pairs with the highest ranking, I recommend reading the new page "Statistics and Probabilities".



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the AUD, JPY and USD.. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.



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Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 2 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table the CAD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest for the second week. The GBP lost 2 points and the AUD gained 3 points last week. All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 1 point.



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13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD remains the strongest of all while the EUR remains the weakest. The JPY is now a Weak currency with a Average 13 wks. even below the GBP. The JPY had also 7 times a lower score compared to the GBP in the last 13 Weeks.



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The Weak Currencies

The GBP has a Score of 1 and the EUR is now also going down again after a short revival in the previous weeks. The JPY is now also a Weak Currency and as can be seen it followed this path coming from a strong currency. Although the weakness in this currency may be of a temporary nature it is taking longer than expected. According to the calculations for the Weekly data in this article it is a Weak currency. 
This is however not the case in the Monthly article "Forex Strength And Comparison for January 2017" where the JPY remains the strongest currency according to the 12 Months Average Score. The currency may have enough time to recover looking from a longer term perspective and can even remain a Strong currency. 
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.





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Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



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Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CAD, USD and CHF
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, JPY and EUR.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
CAD and NZD.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUR/CHF and NZD/JPY.




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Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 2 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: CAD(4X)  followed by the CHF(3X) and the USD(2X) . The weaker currencies are the GBP(4X) followed by the JPY(3X) and the EUR(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/CAD with the CHF/JPY
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/CAD
  • USD/JPY with the GBP/CHF
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and EUR/CHF. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.




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Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






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For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 8 January 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 4 to 6.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




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Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the CAD and NZD. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.