FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Forex Strength And Comparison for November 2016

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming month. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. In the Currency Strength table the USD is the strongest currency, the GBP is the weakest and the JPY is currently in a dip while all the other currencies did not change except for the CHF which is 1 point higher. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.



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12 Months Currency Score Strength

The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the "12 months Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single month, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 12 months. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 12 months average, see the last row called "Avg. 12 M."
  3. The number of months that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

All the currencies are within their classification when using the Avg. 12 M. Although the JPY is in a dip this month this does not have any effect on the Avg. 12 months Currency Score. The JPY remains the strongest currency.

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The Strong Currencies

In the last Month the JPY is in a dip with a score of 4 being the weakest one of the strong currencies. However, it is clear to see that this currency was in the last period very strong, the strongest of all for 6 months. For that reason it does not seem that this currency will continue to weaken. There will be at least a period of consolidation before the currency will get close to a Neutral classification. It has at the moment the highest Avg. 12 M. Currency Score of all currencies!
The NZD is very stable lately while the USD is gaining strength and coming back to the area of the Strong currencies.
Here below you can see the Monthly Currency Score Chart with 24 months data as a reference.





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Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this month you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 3 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 12 months and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current month.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



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Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "12 Months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, NZD and AUD
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "12 Months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, CAD and EUR.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
JPY.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Monthly chart. For the coming month these seem to be: GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, NZD/CAD, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CHF.

For the GBP pairs the GBP/NZD seems the most interesting not being yet in the overbought/oversold followed by the GBP/CHF which is a little bit in that area but may stay within when the new month starts. The GBP/USD and EUR/GBP are in extreme overbough/oversold area according to the monthly chart using the Bollinger Band(20). Strong overbough/oversold areas in the Monthly chart may still offer a good opportunity but the pull back may be strong!



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a month on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating And Score for November 2016

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published. In the Top 10 of the Monthly Ranking and Rating list for the coming month the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: USD(3X) with the NZD(3X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(6X) followed by the CAD(2X) with the EUR(2X).
A nice combination for coming month may be e.g:
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/NZD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/USD
  • USD/CAD with the GBP/NZD
  • USD/CAD with the EUR/NZD
  • NZD/CAD with the EUR/USD
  • NZD/CAD with the GBP/USD
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Weekly and Monthly chart. For the coming month these seem to be:
GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, NZD/CAD,  GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY and EUR/USD
.
For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.

For the GBP pairs the GBP/NZD is the most interesting not being yet in the overbought/oversold followed by the GBP/CHF which is a little bit in that area but may stay within when the new month starts. The GBP/USD is in extreme overbough/oversold area according to the monthly chart using the Bollinger Band(20). Strong overbough/oversold areas in the Monthly chart may still offer a good opportunity but the pull back may be strong!

These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your preferences it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every month the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared around the change of the month. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.

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For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be traded in the Daily chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 3 Time Frames: the Monthly, Weekly and Daily. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the JPY. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.


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Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a month on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Monthly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 44 / 2016

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. In the Currency Strength table the NZD is the strongest currency, the GBP is the weakest. The EUR clearly got stronger in the last week and the JPY weaker. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

As already written in the last weeks the distance in the score of several currencies are very small.
The USD(Strong) has an average score higher but close to the AUD(Neutral). It had however 8 times a higher score in the last 13 weeks so it is clearly still stronger but may become a Neutral currency. This was avoided last weeks because of the high scores in the last 4 weeks.
The EUR(Weak) has an average score lower but close to the CHF(Neutral). It had only 6 times a higher score in the last 13 weeks so it is clearly the weaker currency. The EUR however is more in the range of the Neutral currencies than the Weak currencies. Because of the low score of last 3 weeks it remains a Weak currency for now.



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The Weak Currencies

As can be seen the EUR looks like trying to jump out of the lower range by showing 3 times a peak in the last period. The last peak is developing and it is now at a score of 4. The CAD showed some strength in the last period showing a peak but is back to the lower range in the last weeks. The GBP remains clearly the weakest currency of all.
Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with 6 months data as a reference.







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Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.




______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD, USD and CHF
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, CAD and EUR.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
JPY.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, NZD/CAD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP and AUD/CAD




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 44 / 2016

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published. In the Top 10 of the Weekly Ranking and Rating list for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: NZD(4X) followed by the USD(2X) with the CHF(2X). The weaker currencies are the EUR(4X) with the GBP(5X) followed by the CAD(3X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/NZD with the USD/CAD
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/NZD
  • NZD/CAD with the GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD with the EUR/NZD
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be:
GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, NZD/CAD, USD/CAD and EUR/GBP.

For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.

These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your preferences it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the JPY. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 43 / 2016

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. When looking at the Currency Strength in the table here below we can see that the USD is the strongest currency, the EUR is the weakest and the CAD is back again to the lower range while the NZD is back to the higher range. The USD, JPY and NZD clearly got stronger in the last week and the EUR and CAD weaker. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

The USD(Strong) has an average score higher but close to the AUD(Neutral). It had however 7 times a higher score in the last 13 weeks so it is clearly still stronger but may become a Neutral currency. This was avoided last weeks because of the high score of 8 in these last 3 weeks.
The EUR(Weak) has an average score lower but close to the CHF(Neutral). It had only 5 times a higher score in the last 13 weeks so it is clearly the weaker currency. The EUR however is more in the range of the Neutral currencies than the Weak currencies. Because of the low score of last 2 weeks it remains a Weak currency for now. This currency will be monitored closely in the coming weeks and may become a Neutral currency.
Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart of the USD and EUR with 6 months data as a reference.



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The USD and EUR

As can be seen the USD is back to the higher range of the strong currencies. However, in the months of July, August and September it was in the range of  the Neutral currencies. For the EUR it is the other way around. It was also in the Neutral range in the same period but it is now back to the range of the Weak currencies. That is the reason why both currencies are having an Average 13 Weeks Score near to the Neutral currencies AUD and CHF.
When looking at the TA Charts of this combination there is a clear direction with momentum and that is why this pair is also in the list of the longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart, see the bottom of this article for more information. As long as the currencies remain in their current range or only one of the 2 currencies goes to the Neutral range the momentum may still be good.






_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, JPY and NZD
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
EUR, GBP and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. There are no deviating currencies for this week. See the Strength and Compariosn table for more information.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, USD/CHF and NZD/CAD.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 43 / 2016

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published. When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: USD(3X) with the JPY(3X) followed by the NZD(2X). The weaker currencies are the EUR(4X) with the GBP(4X) followed by the CAD(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the USD/CAD
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/JPY
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/NZD with the GBP/JPY
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be:
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD.
For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.

These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your preferences it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. There are no deviating currencies this week, see for more information my article "Strength and Comparison".


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison Week 42 / 2016

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. When looking at the Currency Strength in the table here below we can see that the USD is the strongest currency, the GBP is the weakest and the CAD recovered after loosing a lot of strength in the 5 weeks before. The USD, AUD and CAD clearly got stronger in the last week and the EUR weaker. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
  2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

The USD(Strong) has an average score higher but close to the AUD(Average). It had however 7 times a higher score in the last 13 weeks so it is clearly still stronger but may become an Average currency. This was avoided last weeks because of the high score of 8 in these last 2 weeks.
The EUR(Weak) has an average score lower but close to the CHF(Average). It had only 5 times a higher score in the last 13 weeks so it is clearly the weaker currency. The EUR however is more in the range of the Average currencies than the Weak currencies. Because of the low score of 2 last weeks it remains a Weak currency for now. This currency will be monitored closely in the coming week and may become an Average currency.
Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart of the strong currencies with 6 months data as a reference.



_____________________________________


The Strong Currencies

As can be seen the USD is gaining strength in the last weeks with the exception of the dip on October 2 (Week 39). The NZD is weakening but because of the high scores in the weeks before it has still a high average score. The JPY was very strong for a long period but is showing at the moment the second dip in a short period.






_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, AUD and JPY
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, EUR and CHF.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies seem to be at the moment e.g. the:
CAD and NZD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to be avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, USD/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/JPY.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score Week 42 / 2016

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published. When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: USD(3X) followed by the AUD(2X) with the CAD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(6X) followed by the EUR(3X) and the CHF(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:

  • GBP/USD with the EUR/AUD
  • GBP/AUD with the EUR/USD
  • GBP/CAD with the EUR/CAD
  • GBP/CHF with the EUR/AUD
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be:
GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, USD/CHF.
For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.

These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the CAD and NZD. Unless these currencies show a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to avoid them.


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK 41

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. When looking at the Currency Strength in the table here below we can see that the USD is the strongest currency. The GBP is clearly the weakest and the CAD lost a lot of strength in the last 5 weeks. The USD and EUR became stronger in the last week and the NZD lost direction in the last 3 weeks by going from 3 to 6 and back to 3. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

The USD(Strong) has an Average score higher but close to the AUD(Average) and it had only 6 times a higher score in the last 13 Weeks. For these reasons the USD is close to become an average currency and this was avoided last week because of the high score of 8.
The EUR(Weak) has an Average score lower but close to the CHF(Average) and it had only 6 times a higher score in the last 13 Weeks. However, the score of the EUR is more in the range of the average currencies than the Weak currencies. This currency will be monitored closely in the coming week and may become an Average currency.
Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with 6 months data as a reference.



_____________________________________

The Weak Currencies

As can be seen the EUR is moving away from the other weak currencies and getting more in the range of the average and strong currencies.






_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, JPY and AUD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, CAD.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies seem to be at the moment e.g. the:
EUR and NZD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to be avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, AUD/CAD, CAD/CHF.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.