FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Friday, September 30, 2016

Forex Strength And Comparison for October 2016

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming month. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. When looking at the Currency Strength in the table here below we can see that the CAD lost a lot of strength in the last 4 months. The NZD and the AUD became stronger in the last 4 months. For more details read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.


______________________________________

12 Months Currency Score Strength

The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the "12 months Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single month, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 12 months. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 12 months average, see the last row called "Avg. 12 M."
  3. The number of months that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.


_____________________________________

The Strong Currencies

 In the last 4 Months the NZD became stronger being the second stronger currency after the JPY. According to the Currency Strength table above the Avg. 12 M. of the NZD is close to the USD which is a strong currency. 
The Score of the NZD is also far from the other average currencies. For that reason the NZD changed classification from Average to Strong.
Here below you can see the Monthly Currency Score Chart with 2 years data as a reference.



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The Average Currencies
In the last 4 Months the AUD became stronger and it has at the moment a higher Avg. 12 M. than the CHF which is an Average Currency. The Score of the AUD is also far from the other weak currencies. For that reason the AUD changed classification from Weak to Average.


_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this month you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 3 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 12 months and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current month.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same category a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "12 Months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY, NZD and AUD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "12 Months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, CAD and EUR.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. There are no curencies at the moment with a high deviation.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Monthly chart. For the coming month these seem to be: GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and EUR/AUD




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a month on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating And Score for October 2016

When looking at the Top 10 in the Monthly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming month the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(4X) followed by the NZD(3X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the CAD(2X) and the EUR(2X).
A nice combination for coming month may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/NZD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/JPY
  • CAD/JPY with the GBP/NZD
  • NZD/CAD with the EUR/JPY
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Weekly and Monthly chart. For the coming month these seem to be: GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD and NZD/CAD.

These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every month the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared around the change of the month. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 30 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be traded in the Daily chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 3 Time Frames: the Monthly, Weekly and Daily. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 12 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. There are no currencies at the moment with a high deviation.


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a month on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Monthly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Strength and Comparison WK 40

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. When looking at the Currency Strength in the table here below we can see that the CAD lost a lot of strength in the last 4 weeks. The CHF and the AUD became stronger in the last week and the USD became weaker in the last 2 weeks. For more details read both of my articles where the necessary Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.


_____________________________________

The Strong Currencies

 In the last 2 weeks the USD became weaker. According to the Currency Strength table here above the Avg. 13 Weeks of the USD is slightly higher compared to the AUD which is an average currency. The USD scored also only 7 times higher than the AUD in the last 13 weeks.
Some Classification changes may occur in the coming weeks with the mentioned currencies.
The JPY is clearly the strongest currency and the NZD had a 1 bad week but recovered. Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with 6 months data as a reference.




_____________________________________
Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
AUD, JPY and NZD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, CAD and EUR.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies seem to be at the moment e.g. the:
AUD and USD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to be avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, AUD/CAD and EUR/AUD.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK40

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: AUD(4X) followed by the JPY(3X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the CAD(2X) and the EUR(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • AUD/CAD with the EUR/JPY
  • GBP/AUD with the CAD/JPY
  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/AUD
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be:
GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and AUD/CAD.


These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the  AUD and USD. Unless these currencies show a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to avoid them.


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained" and "Models in practice" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK 39

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published. When looking at the Currency Strength in the table here below we can see that the CAD lost a lot of strength in the last 3 weeks. The CHF and the AUD became stronger in the last week and the NZD weaker. For more details read both of my articles where the necessary Charts and Tables are provided.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.


_____________________________________

The Weak Currencies

In the last weeks the CAD became a lot weaker. According to the Currency Strength table here above the Avg. 13 Weeks of the CAD is lower than the EUR which is a weak currency. The CAD scored also 7 times lower than the EUR in the last 13 weeks. For these reason the classification of the CAD has changed from Average to Weak.

The GBP is clearly still the weakest currency with the lowest score of 1.
Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart for the weak currencies with 6 months data as a reference.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY, CHF and AUD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP and CAD.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies seem to be at the moment e.g. the:
CHF and NZD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to be avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, CAD/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/CAD and GBP/NZD


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK39

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(5X) followed by the CHF(3X) with the AUD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(4X) followed by the CAD(3X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the AUD/CAD
  • GBP/CHF with the CAD/JPY
  • GBP/AUD with the CAD/JPY
Some of the pairs in the Top 10 comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be:
GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, CAD/JPY, GBP/AUD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and AUD/CAD
.

These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.



______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 September 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment are e.g. the CHF and NZD. Unless these currencies show a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to be avoided.


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK 38

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week. The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published.


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13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the "13 weeks Currency Classification" can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 August 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.


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The Weak Currencies

In the last weeks the EUR gained a lot of strength. According to the Currency Strength table here above the Avg. 13 Weeks is higher than that of the CAD.
The CAD scored 7 times higher than the EUR in the last 13 weeks. However, the CAD is close to becoming a weak currency also for the coming period if it remains this weak.
The GBP is clearly a weak currency and had in the last weeks 2 times a stronger period but is now back to the lowest score of 1.
Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart for the weak currencies with 6 months data as a reference.




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Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.




______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY, USD and NZD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, CAD and AUD.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. There is only one currency at the moment, which is:
EUR.
Unless this currency offers a clear opportunity based on the longer term it seems best to be avoided. However, this currency may offer opportunities for the short term trader.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.

  • When analyzing the TA of the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be:
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, EUR/GBP, NZD/CAD, EUR/JPY and GBP/CHF.
    When applying a filter based on the:
    • "Currency Comparison Table" all the currencies comply.
    • Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List" all the currencies comply except for the EUR/JPY and GBP/CHF. 



______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs as example combinations:

  • GBP/JPY with AUD/USD
  • GBP/USD with NZD/CAD
  • GBP/NZD with CAD/JPY
  • AUD/JPY with USD/CAD
  • When applying a filter here based on:
    • "Currency Comparison Table" all the currencies comply.
    • Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart the pairs GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD and CAD/JPY comply.
The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to:
  • the order in that list,
  • the Currency score difference in the "Currency Comparison Table" 
  • and how the charts in the different Time frames are looking. 
The pairs mentioned here above are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK38

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week. The article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(4X) followed by the USD(3X) and the NZD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(4X) followed by the CAD(3X) and the AUD(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the AUD/USD
  • GBP/USD with the NZD/CAD
  • GBP/NZD with the CAD/JPY
  • AUD/JPY with the USD/CAD
These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it always seems better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 August 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.



When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the EUR. Unless this currency shows a clear opportunity based on the longer term it should be avoided.


Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK 37

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week, the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 August 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "3 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
  5. Besides these the "13 weeks Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared.


The Strong Currencies
In the month of August the USD had a weak period but it recovered in the weeks of September. The JPY had a low score of 3 in Week 36 but recovered this last week from it. The NZD had no pullback and is the strongest currency in the last weeks. For now the classification made on August 7 remains valid and the strong currencies are back on track. Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart for the strong currencies with 6 months data as a reference.


_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison
"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the top of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "3 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD, JPY and the USD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "3 months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
CAD, AUD, GBP and the CHF.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. There is only one currency at the moment, which is the:
EUR.
Unless this currency offers a clear opportunity based on the longer term it is avoided. However, this currency may offer opportunities for the short term trader.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.

  • When analyzing the TA of the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the:
    NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CHF and the EUR/NZD.
    When applying a filter based on the:
    • "Currency Comparison Table" all the currencies comply.
    • Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List" all the currencies comply except for the EUR/NZD 


______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs as example combinations:
  • NZD/CAD with the GBP/JPY
  • GBP/NZD with the AUD/JPY
  • CAD/JPY with the AUD/NZD
  • When applying a filter here based on the:
    • "Currency Comparison Table" all the currencies comply.
    • Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart the NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY and the AUD/NZD comply.
The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to:
  • the order in that list,
  • the Currency score difference in the "Currency Comparison Table" 
  • and how the charts in the different Time frames are looking. 
The pairs mentioned here above are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.