FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, July 31, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison Wk 31

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week, the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.


______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "3 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
  5. Besides these the "13 weeks Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared.


As can be see in the "Currency Strength Table" here above the CAD, being an average currency, has lost strength lately. In the last 6 weeks it had a lower score than the AUD, which is a weak currency at the moment. Although the 13 weeks average of the CAD is still higher compared to the AUD it is becoming a small difference. The EUR is also showing more strength last week and has a similar score as the AUD. However, in the last period it had only one time a higher score which was last week.

If the AUD remains this strong and the CAD this weak in the coming weeks they will change places in the Currency Score Classification. Here below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart of the AUD and the CAD with 6 months data as a reference.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the top of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "3 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY and the NZD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "3 months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
CAD and the GBP.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the:
USD, AUD and the CAD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.
  • When analyzing the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the:
    GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, GBP/AUD, USD/JPY, GBP/CHF, EUR/JPY, NZD/CAD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/CAD and the EUR/NZD.
  • A crossed join between the Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List", the "Currency Comparison Table" and the pairs with the best charts mentioned here above shows the following interesting pairs: 
    GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, CAD/JPY, GBP/AUD, USD/JPY, GBP/CHF, EUR/JPY and the NZD/CAD.
    • All pairs are mentioned as "Approved" in the "Currency Comparison Table.
    • The GBP/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/CAD and the EUR/NZD are not mentioned in the Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list. 



______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs:
  • GBP/JPY with the NZD/CAD
  • CAD/JPY with the GBP/NZD
All these pairs are mentioned as interesting according to the combinations mentioned in the crossed join here above. The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to:
  • the order in that list,
  • the Currency score difference in the "Currency Comparison Table" 
  • and how the charts in the different Time frames are looking. 
The pairs mentioned here above are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK31

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week, the article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(5X) followed by the NZD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the CAD(2X)
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the NZD/CAD
  • CAD/JPY with the GBP/NZD
These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it seems always better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against different other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.






______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.

When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the USD, AUD and the CAD. Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided.


Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK30

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week, the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.


______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "3 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
  5. Besides these the "13 weeks Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the top of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "3 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, JPY and the NZD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "3 months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
CAD, EUR and the GBP.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. They are all around their range so there are no high deviations.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.
  • When analyzing the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the:
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF, EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, AUD/JPY and the GBP/CAD.
  • A crossed join between the Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List", the "Currency Comparison Table" and the pairs with the best charts mentioned here above shows the following interesting pairs: 
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF, EUR/USD, EUR/NZD and the AUD/JPY.
    • All pairs are mentioned as "Approved" in the "Currency Comparison Table.
    • Only the GBP/CAD is not mentioned in the Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list. 


______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs:
  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/JPY with the GBP/USD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/NZD with the GBP/JPY
All these pairs, except for the EUR/JPY, are mentioned as interesting according to the combinations mentioned in the crossed join here above. The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to:
  • the order in that list,
  • the Currency score difference in the "Currency Comparison Table" 
  • and how the charts in the different Time frames are looking. 
The pairs mentioned here above are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK30

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week, the article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(4X) followed by the USD(2X) with the NZD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the EUR(3X)
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:

  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/JPY with the GBP/USD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/NZD with the GBP/JPY
These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it seems always better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against different other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.


When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. They are all around their range so there are no high deviations.


Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK29

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week, the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.



______________________________________

13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "3 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
  5. Besides these the "13 weeks Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared.


In the previous article we looked into the weak currencies. In this article the chart of the strong currencies is provided here below. It is clear to see that the JPY is the strongest over the last period. The NZD is moving between the average and the strong area being more stable than the USD which is also sometimes in the weak area.
At this moment the NZD has the lowest 13 Weeks Average strength being 5,3077 but it is clearly far away from the average currencies showing values of around 4,3.
In the "Currency Score comparison" Table of this article are some good combinations and also for the NZD being in a pull back. It may offer a good step in opportunity.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.



"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the top of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "3 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY and the USD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "3 months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, EUR and the CHF.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the:
AUD and the NZD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.
  • When analyzing the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the:
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, EUR/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, AUD/JPY and the GBP/NZD.
  • A crossed join between the Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List", the "Currency Comparison Table" and the pairs with the best charts mentioned here above shows the following interesting pairs: 
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, EUR/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and the EUR/AUD.
    • All pairs are mentioned as "Approved" in the "Currency Comparison Table.
    • The EUR/CAD, AUD/JPY and the GBP/NZD are not mentioned in the Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list. 



______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs:
  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/JPY with the GBP/USD
All these pairs are mentioned as interesting according to the combinations mentioned in the crossed join here above. The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to:
  • the order in that list,
  • the Currency score difference in the "Currency Comparison Table" 
  • and how the charts in the different Time frames are looking. 
The pairs mentioned here above are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK29

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week, the article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
When looking at the Top 10 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(3X) followed by the USD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the EUR(3X)

A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/USD
  • EUR/JPY with the GBP/USD
These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it seems always better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against different other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.


When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the AUD and the NZD. Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided.


Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Forex Strength and Comparison WK28

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming week, the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.




______________________________________


13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "3 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

  1. First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
  3. The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
  5. Besides these the "13 weeks Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared.


In the previous article we looked into the EUR and this weekend the currency has again a score of 2. In the last 5 weeks it had a score of just 2, which is a value for a weak currency in that specific period(Week). This moves the 13 weeks average down to a value of 3,4615 curently. This value is far from the other average currencies, the CHF and the CAD. It is at the same time a value close to the AUD which is a weak currency. The EUR had 7 weeks a lower score compared to the AUD in the last 13 weeks. The EUR has become for this reason a weak currency, here below you can see the weak currencies.




_____________________________________
Currency Score Comparison


"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.

  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the top of this article.




______________________________________


Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "3 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY, NZD and the USD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "3 months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, EUR and the CAD.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the:
AUD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.

  • When analyzing the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the:
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY, GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD, NZD/CAD, EUR/GBP and the EUR/AUD.
  • A crossed join between the Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List", the "Currency Comparison Table" and the pairs with the best charts mentioned here above shows the following interesting pairs: 
    GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP,NZD, EUR/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY, GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD and the NZD/CAD. 
    • The following pairs are not mentioned as "Approved" in the "Currency Comparison Table":  EUR/GBP and the EUR/AUD
    • The EUR/AUD is not mentioned in the Top 15 of the Ranking and Rating list. 



______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs:
  • GBP/JPY with the NZD/CAD
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/NZD
  • GBP/NZD with the CAD/JPY
  • EUR/JPY with the GBP/USD
  • EUR/JPY with the NZD/CAD
All pairs are mentioned as interesting according to the combinations mentioned in the crossed join here above. The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to the order in the list and the combination with the position in the "Currency Comparison Table" and how the charts are looking.




______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score WK28

Welcome to my "Ranking, Rating and Score" article for the coming week, the article "Strength and Comparison" has also been published.
We will be looking this week at the Top 15 because otherwise the only strong currency would be the JPY and the only weak currency the GBP.
When looking at the Top 15 in the Weekly Ranking and Rating list we can see that for the coming week the following stronger currencies are well represented for going long: JPY(6X) followed by the NZD(4X) and the USD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(6X) followed by the EUR(4X) and the CAD(2X)
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/JPY with the NZD/CAD
  • GBP/USD with the EUR/NZD
  • GBP/NZD with the CAD/JPY
  • EUR/JPY with the GBP/USD
  • EUR/JPY with the NZD/CAD
These are just a few examples and many other combinations are possible. The mentioned pair combinations can be traded at the same time according to the rules of the FxTaTrader strategy because these are all different currencies. Generally speaking, by not trading the same currency in the same direction more than once in the same Time Frame you may have better chances with lower risk. In any case it seems always better to spread risk and this can be done in many different ways.
When trading with more than 2 micro lots it is a good idea to have a diversification and depending on your bias it may offer opportunities by going long or short on a specific currency trading it against different other currencies.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared in the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 10 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: CHF, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 6.
Weak: EUR, AUD, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.


When comparing the 3 months Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the AUD. Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided.


Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Forex Strength And Comparison for July 2016

Welcome to my "Strength and Comparison" article for the coming month, the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" has also been published for this month.
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 12 months currency classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 3 July 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
Strong: USD / JPY. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: GBP, CHF, NZD. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.


______________________________________

12 Months Currency Score Strength

The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the "12 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single month, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 12 months. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 12 months average, see the last row called "Avg. 12 M."
  3. The number of months that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
  5. Besides these the "12 monhts Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared.


As can be seen in the "Currency Strength Table" here above the CHF has lost strength lately and is at the same 12 Months Average score as the NZD. For that reason the CHF changed classification from "Strong" to "Average". The CHF was also only 5 months stronger in the last 12 Months comapred to the NZD. When looking at the 12 Months Average scores it is clear to see that the USD and the JPY, being strong currencies, are having a much higher score being above 6. Here below you can see the last 12 Months Currency Score Graph with the strong currencies, USD and the JPY, and the CHF which is now an average currency.




______________________________________


Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison Table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this month you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 3 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.



"Comparison Table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional analysis of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The Comparison Table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 12 months and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification, see "Forex Currency Score Classification for January", we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.
  1. First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
    • It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
    • Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current month.
    • Even though they are in the same classification when looking at the 12 months average a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the top of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "12 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY, NZD and the USD
.
These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "12 months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, EUR and the CAD.
These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. These currencies are at the moment e.g. the:
GBP, AUD and the NZD.
Unless these currencies offer a clear opportunity based on the longer term they are avoided. However, these currencies may offer opportunities for the short term trader.


Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Weekly and Monthly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail.
  • When analyzing the Monthly and Weekly charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the:
    GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, GBP/CHF, AUD/JPY, EUR/NZD, CHF/JPY, USD/JPY, NZD/CAD and the NZD/JPY.
  • A crossed join between the Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List", the "Currency Comparison Table" and the pairs with the best charts mentioned here above shows the following interesting pairs: 
    GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, GBP/CHF, AUD/JPY and the EUR/NZD.
    • All the pairs are mentioned as "Approved" pair in the "Currency Comparison Table".
    • The CHF/JPY, USD/JPY, NZD/CAD and the NZD/JPY are not mentioned in the Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list. 


______________________________________

The article "Ranking, Rating and Score" published this weekend contains the following interesting pairs:
  • GBP/JPY with the EUR/NZD
  • GBP/NZD with the EUR/JPY
All pairs are mentioned as interesting according to the combinations mentioned in the crossed join here above. The pairs mentioned in the "Ranking, Rating and Score" have the preference according to the order in the list and the combination with the position in the "Currency Comparison Table" and how the charts are looking.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog at FxTaTrader.com. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page Currency score explained and Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER:
The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.