FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 26 / 2017


In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was again the strongest currency while the GBP was again the weakest. There were significant changes last week with the CHF gaining 3 points and the CAD losing 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 1 point.


______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.




For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: USD, EUR, GBP, NZD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
Weak: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the NZD has a higher Score than the EUR  and GBP. These are both Neutral currencies. However, the NZD had only 5 stronger weeks compared to the GBP but it had 9 stronger weeks compared to the EUR. Based on this the NZD is now a Neutral currency.

The USD had another very Weak Score last week. The
Average 13 wks. Score is now lower than the NZD, EUR and GBP being all Neutral currencies. It also had very little Weeks showing a higher Score in the last 13 Weeks compared to the mentioned Neutral currencies. For that reason the USD is now a Neutral currency.




_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Neutral currencies. The USD is showing values lately in the range of neutral currencies and it has become one after another week having a low Score. The NZD is showing the opposite with the high Score in the last weeks. It has become a Neutral currency. The EUR is clearly a Neutral currency and the GBP is starting to become weak again in the last 5 weeks.Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.









"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
NZD, CHF and EUR.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, USD and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
JPY and AUD.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 26 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(4X) followed by the CHF(3X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the USD(3X) and the JPY(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/NZD with the CHF/JPY
  • GBP/CHF with the NZD/USD
  • NZD/JPY with the  USD/CHF

______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.




______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 25 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: USD, EUR, GBP, NZD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
Weak: AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.





When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 25 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was again the strongest currency while the GBP was again the weakest. There were significant changes last week with the CAD gaining 5 points. The JPY lost 4 points and the CHF 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 1 point.


______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 11 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: AUD, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the NZD has a higher Score than the GBP. However, the NZD had only 5 stronger weeks compared to the GBP. If the NZD succeeds next week to have a higher Score again it may become a Neutral currency.
The USD is getting weaker and
the Average 13 wks. Score is showing that also. It may become a Neutral currency also in the coming weeks.
The
Average 13 wks. Score of the JPY and CHF are clearly strong despite the low score of last week. The Average 13 wks. Score of  the CAD is clearly weak despite the high Score of last week.



_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at 2 currencies which are close to change in Classification. The USD is showing values lately in the range of neutral currencies and it may become one in the coming weeks. The Avg. 13 wks. score is getting every week further away from the other Strong currencies.
The NZD had 4 weeks of strong performance but is not yet showing enough higher weeks compared to the EUR and GBP which are Neutral currencies. It it however close to become a Neutral currency in the coming weeks.
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.





Last week was exceptional with the Weak currencies being at the range of the Strong currencies and the Strong currencies being at the range of the Weak currencies. Based on this, it seems a difficult week for trading with the best opportunities for going long on the EUR and CHF and going short on the GBP.

"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
EUR and CHF.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
NZD, CAD, USD and JPY.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 25 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(4X) followed by the CAD(3X) and the AUD(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(4X) followed by the JPY(3X) and the USD(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/CAD with the AUD/JPY
  • NZD/JPY with the USD/CAD
  • GBP/AUD with the  NZD/USD

______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 11 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: AUD, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 24 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest. There were significant changes last week with the AUD gaining 4 points. The EUR and GBP lost 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 1 point.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 11 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: AUD, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the AUD has become clearly a Weak currency with a Score lower than the NZD which is also a Weak currency.
Although the NZD had some high Scores in the last 3 weeks and the Avg. 13 wks. is coming close to the GBP, it had only the last 3 weeks a higher Score. It is not significant enough and the
Avg. 13 wks. Score should be higher also.
The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. It is possible that the NZD will become a Neutral currency in the coming weeks.




_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take again a look at the Weak currencies. The AUD has become a Weak currency although it had a Score of 5 last week. The NZD is surprising with the high Socres of the last 3 weeks. The CAD is clearly reamining very weak.Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CHF and JPY.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
NZD, AUD, USD and GBP.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 24 / 2017

 The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(4X) followed by the CHF(2X) with the JPY(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the CAD(3X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/NZD with the CAD/JPY
  • GBP/CHF with the NZD/CAD
  • GBP/JPY with the  CAD/CHF


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 11 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: AUD, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Forex Strength And Comparison for June 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the EUR was the strongest currency while the AUD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last month with the EUR and NZD gaining 4 points strength. The USD lost 4 points and the GBP 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in the strength of just 2 points.



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12 Months Currency Score Strength

The 12 Months Currency Strength and the 12 Months Average are provided here below. This data and the "12 months Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single month, we perform several checks to avoid this.
  1. First of all the strength over a period of 12 months. See each row for more information.
  2. Then the 12 months average, see the last row called "Avg. 12 M."
  3. The number of months that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
  4. The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 12 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 6 June 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes: 
Strong: USD, JPY, NZD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 12 M. Score the USD is the strongest of all and the GBP the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. It is clear to see in the Avg. 12 M. values to what groups the currencies belong.
This is not the case for the CAD, it has now an Average 12 M. Score between the Neutral and Weak currencies. It is clearly closer to the Weak currencies and is now classified as such.





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Classification review

This month we take a look at the weak currencies. The EUR is clearly getting a lot stronger lately coming from a Score of 1 and going from there to 4 and 8. The GBP is still struggling on the lower Range with sometimes making a Top at the middle of the range. The CAD is now classified as a Weak currency and as can be seen, it has the lowest Score of the 3 Weak currencies.Below you can see the Monthly Currency Score Chart with the 24 months' data as a reference.





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Currency Score Comparison

"Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this month, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every month together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 3 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a month and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 12 months and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

  1. First of all only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current month.
  2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
  3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
  4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


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Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "12 Months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CHF, NZD and JPY
.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "12 Months currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
AUD, CAD and GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is e.g. the:
EUR, CHF, USD and AUD.




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Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a month on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Weekly and Monthly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming month.



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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.