FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 13 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the JPY was the strongest currency while the CAD was again the weakest. There were a lot of changes last week but with just a difference of 1 point. The EUR, JPY, CHF gained all 1 point while the USD and AUD lost 1 point. The other Currencies remained at the same level.



______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 26 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, AUD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: JPY, CHF, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the AUD remains the strongest of all while the GBP remains the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best.
The NZD and CAD lost a lot of strength in the last 4 weeks. As can be seen the Average 13 wks. Score are very close to the CHF which is a Neutral currency. For that reason, these currencies are now also classified as neutral.



_____________________________________

Classification review

The NZD and CAD lost a lot of strength lately and as can be seen in the chart below. For now, these currencies are classified as Neutral currencies.
They are both in a dip and there is no sign of bottoming yet. In the last 6 months, the CAD bottomed also in January and October 2016 and the NZD had a few small dips. These currencies remained further strong during the last 6 months.
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.



_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The text  "Approved" mentioned in the `Currency score comparison table` has been taken out. The reason is that the information is published once a week and the rates change during the week. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up during the week. It seems then better to provide only the currency Score difference. Depending on the development of the rates during the week a Score difference of e.g. 3 may become more interesting than a Score difference of e.g. 5.

There are many ways to follow the rate changes during the week. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts of course and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Daily and 4 Hours chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the development of rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be by pips or percentage difference or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.
   5. Because this is static information being published once a week the rates change constantly during the week. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up during the week.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
JPY and CHF.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
CAD, NZD and GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
JPY, CAD, EUR and USD.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 13 / 2017

 The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: (5X) followed by the JPY(4X) with the CHF(4X). The weaker currencies are the CAD(3X) with the NZD(3X) followed by the GBP(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • CAD/JPY with the GBP/CHF
  • GBP/JPY with the NZD/CHF
  • NZD/JPY with the CAD/CHF


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 26 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, AUD. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: JPY, CHF, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.


______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 12 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the AUD was the strongest currency while the CAD was the weakest. There were a lot of changes last week. The JPY gained 3 points while USD and EUR lost 3 points. The GBP gained 2 points and the CAD lost 2. All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 1 point.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 19 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
Neutral: JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 3 to 4.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the AUD is the strongest of all while the GBP is the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best.
The JPY gained so much strength in the last 7 weeks and is now classified as a neutral currency. The NZD and CAD, on the other hand, are losing a lot of strength in the last 3 weeks. With only being 7 times stronger in the last 13 Weeks than the CHF which is a Neutral currency. These currencies are also having an Average 13 wks. Score close to the CHF and may become a Neutral currency in the coming weeks if they remain this weak.



_____________________________________

Classification review

The JPY gained a lot of strength lately and as can be seen in the chart below the currency bottomed in December last year. In February and March the JPY had Scores in the range of the Strong currencies. For now this currency is classified as a Neutral currency. The CHF is clearly for a long time a Neutral currency with sometimes a small dip or top. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
AUD, JPY and CHF.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the:
JPY, CAD, NZD and EUR.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week, these seem to be: AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD, EUR/AUD and GBP/JPY.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 12 / 2017

 The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: AUD(5X) followed by the JPY(3X) with the CHF(2X). The weaker currencies are the CAD(3X) followed by the NZD(2X) and the GBP(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • AUD/CAD with the NZD/CHF
  • GBP/AUD with the CAD/CHF
  • CAD/JPY with the AUD/NZD
Some of the pairs in the list comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: AUD/CAD, GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD, EUR/AUD and GBP/JPY. For more details, read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.


______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 19 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
Neutral: JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 3 to 4.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.


______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the JPY, CAD, NZD and EUR. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.


______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 11 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the USD was again the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest. It was quiet last week compared to the week before. All the Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 1 point.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 5 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
Neutral: CHF. The preferred range is from 4.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD is the strongest of all while the GBP is the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best.
The AUD gained so much strength in the last 5 weeks and is now classified as a strong currency. The NZD, on the other hand, is losing a lot of strength in the last 2 weeks. With only being 7 times stronger in the last 13 Weeks than the CHF which is a Neutral currency. There are at this moment 4 strong currencies and just one Neutral currency. However, the JPY is somewhere in the middle of the range of the Weak and Neutral currencies with an Average 13 wks. Score of 3,6154 and may become a Neutral currency if it continues to gain strength.
The NZD and CAD lost a lot of strength in the last 2 weeks and one of these currencies may become a Neutral currency in the coming weeks.



_____________________________________

Classification review

The NZD lost a lot of strength lately and as can be seen in the chart below it is now making a dip going to lows where it has not been in the last 6 months. The currency made 3 times a top with a score of 8 and bottoms at a score of 4. The last Top was at a score of 6 in Week 9. The bottom is still being made but is currently a score of 2.
The Average 13 wks. Score is getting close to the CHF and as can be seen in the chart it is reasonable to qualify the currency as Neutral in case the Average 13 wks. Score gets closer to the CHF. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.




_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.




"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.




______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD and AUD.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the:
EUR, CAD and NZD.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week, these seem to be: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, USD/CHF and AUD/JPY.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.



______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 11 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: USD(4X) followed by the AUD(2X) with the EUR(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(5X) followed by the NZD(3X) and the JPY(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/USD with the AUD/NZD
  • GBP/AUD with the USD/CAD
  • NZD/USD with the EUR/GBP
Some of the pairs in the list comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, USD/CHF and AUD/JPY. For more details, read both of my articles where the relevant Charts and Tables are provided.




______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 5 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
Neutral: CHF. The preferred range is from 4.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.




______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.









When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail. Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the EUR, CAD and NZD. Unless a clear opportunity based on the longer term is shown it seems best to be avoided.



______________________________________

Besides this article I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.



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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 10 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table the USD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest. There were a lot of changes last week. The EUR gained 5 points, the USD and JPY gained 4 points,  All the other Currencies remained around the level of the previous week with a maximum difference of just 2 points.


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 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 5 March 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, NZD, AUD, CAD. The preferred range is from 5 to 8.
Neutral: CHF. The preferred range is from 4.
Weak: JPY, EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score the USD is the strongest of all while the GBP is the weakest. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best.
The AUD gained so much strength in the last 5 weeks and is now classified as a strong currency. Although it is with a slightly difference to the NZD the weakest currency of the strong ones, it had in the last 13 weeks 7 times a higher score than the NZD.
There are at this moment 4 strong currencies and just one Neutral currency. However, the JPY is somewhere in the middle of the range of the Weak and Neutral currencies with an Average 13 wks. Score of 3,6154 and may become a Neutral currency if it continues to gain strength.
The NZD and CAD lost a lot of strength last week but are still too strong and remain Strong currencies. However, this can change in the coming weeks.



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Classification review

The AUD gained a lot of strength and is clearly outperforming the other Strong currencies. It is now classified as a Strong currency. Only the USD was able to show a better result last week. The NZD and CAD are clearly losing strength and the NZD started already 4 weeks ago. It made 2 weeks ago a top of 6 but was not able to continue gaining strength and had last week a score of  2. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months data as a reference.



































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Currency Score Comparison


 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.



"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved" when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.


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Putting the pieces together


Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD and AUD.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example at the moment is/are e.g. the:
EUR, CAD and NZD.

Some of the pairs in the "Currency Comparison Table" comply for a longer term trade based on the Technical Analysis (TA) of the Daily and Weekly chart. For the coming week these seem to be: GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD, USD/CHF and AUD/JPY.



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Besides this article I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.