FxTaTrader


Forex Technical Analysis based on experience and research.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 22 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the GBP was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the NZD gaining 6 points strength while the GBP lost 4 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 2 points.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 28 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, GBP, AUD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the CHF is now very close to the other strong currencies. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. Last week the CHF changed groups from being a Neutral currency to a Strong currency.



_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Strong currencies. As can be seen, the CHF gained a lot of strength lately and is now classified as a strong currency. It had the highest score last week of the 3 Strong currencies. The JPY had a dip lately but is recovering in the last 2 weeks. The USD is the worst performer lately of the Strong currencies. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.





_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.







"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CHF, EUR and JPY.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
GBP, AUD and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
EUR and NZD.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 22 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the NZD(3X) with the CHF(3X) followed by the EUR(2X). The weaker currencies are the GBP(4X) with the AUD(4X) followed by the CAD(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • GBP/NZD with the AUD/CHF
  • GBP/CHF with the EUR/AUD
  • AUD/NZD with the CAD/CHF

______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 28 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, GBP, AUD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 21 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the EUR was the strongest currency while the AUD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the JPY gaining 3 points strength and the CHF and CAD gaining 2 points while the USD lost 4 points and the AUD lost 3 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 1 point.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.


For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, CHF, GBP, AUD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
Weak: NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the CHF is now stronger than the AUD. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. Last week the AUD changed groups from being a Strong currency to a Neutral currency. As can be seen, the Average 13 wks. Score for the AUD is now around the levels of the Neutral currencies. The CHF on the other hand is close to becoming a Strong currency.




_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Neutral currencies, CHF and AUD. As can be seen, the CHF gained a lot of strength lately and is clearly stronger than the AUD in the last weeks. At the moment the AUD changed groups and if the CHF remains strong it may do so also and become a Strong currency in the coming weeks.Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.





_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.






"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
AUD, NZD and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
EUR and USD and AUD.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 21 / 2017

The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the EUR(4X) followed by the CHF(3X) and GBP(2X). The weaker currencies are the AUD(4X) followed by the NZD(2X) with the CAD(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • EUR/AUD with the GBP/NZD
  • GBP/NZD with the CAD/CHF
  • AUD/CHF with the EUR/CAD

______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.




______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 21 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY. The preferred range is from 7 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, CHF, GBP, AUD. The preferred range is from 3 to 6.
Weak: NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.



______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 20 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the USD was the strongest currency while the CAD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the EUR and AUD gaining 3 points strength, while the CHF and NZD lost 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 1 point.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 14 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, AUD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, CHF, GBP. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that the EUR has become very strong lately. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. In the previous week 3 currencies changed groups and last week the EUR changed from being a Weak currency to a Neutral currency. As can be seen the Average 13 wks. Score is far from the Weak currencies NZD and CAD. The currency is now close to the GBP which is also a Neutral currency since the previous week.




_____________________________________

Classification review

This week we take a look at the Neutral currencies. As can be seen, the GBP and EUR found their way up and are now in the range of the Strong currencies. Both currencies changed in hte previous weeks from a Weak currency to a Neutral currency. The CHF remains in the middle of the range for the whole 6 months displayed on the chart. Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.

_____________________________________

Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.



"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



______________________________________

Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
USD, EUR and GBP.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
NZD and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
EUR and JPY.



______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Forex Ranking, Rating and Score for Week 20 / 2017

 The Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list for the coming week shows the following stronger currencies being well represented for going long: the USD(4X) followed by the EUR(3X) and GBP(2X). The weaker currencies are the CAD(4X) followed by the NZD(3X) and JPY(2X).
A nice combination for coming week may be e.g:
  • USD/CAD with the EUR/JPY
  • GBP/CAD with the USD/JPY
  • NZD/USD with the EUR/CAD

______________________________________

Ranking and Rating list

Analysis based on TA charts for all the major currency pairs. Good luck to all. No advice, just info. Every week the Forex ranking rating list will be prepared for the weekend. All the relevant Time Frames will be analyzed and the ATR and Pip value will be set.





______________________________________

For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 14 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, AUD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: EUR, CHF, GBP. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.

When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the pairs mentioned in the Ranking List above some would then become less interesting. On the other hand, these pairs are at the top of the list partly also because of their volatility. It seems best to take positions for a short period then and take advantage of the high price movements.
With the FxTaTrader Strategy, these pairs are not traded because these would be trades in the 4 Hour chart or in a lower Time Frame. Nevertheless, they may offer good chances for the short term trader.

______________________________________

Currency Score Chart

The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which is published also in this article. The Currency Score is my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 Time Frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the screenshot here below.




When comparing the 13 weeks Currency Classification with the recent Currency Score, as provided in the image above, we can determine the deviations. In the article "Forex Strength and Comparison" this is analyzed in more detail.


______________________________________

Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Strength and Comparison" which is also available once a week on my blog. In that article, we look in more detail at the relative position of the currencies and pairs. We will look in more detail at the interesting pairs from a longer term perspective for trading in the Daily and Weekly chart. We will use the information from this article, "Ranking, Rating and Score", and analyze it further in more detail.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article, then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Forex Strength and Comparison for Week 19 / 2017

In the Currency Strength table, the EUR was the strongest currency while the AUD was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the EUR, CHF and NZD gaining 2 points strength, while the USD, GBP and AUD lost 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in strength of just 1 point.

______________________________________

 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength

The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "13 weeks Currency Classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.

   1. First of all the strength over a period of the last 13 weeks is considered. See each row for more information.
   2. Next, the 13 weeks average is considered, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
   3. The number of weeks that a currency was stronger than another currency can also be considered.
   4. The Technical Analysis (TA) Charts for each Time Frame could also be consulted.



For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer-term perspective the last 13 weeks Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 7 May 2017 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: USD, JPY, AUD. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Neutral: CHF, GBP. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
Weak: EUR, NZD, CAD. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.

When looking at the Average 13 wks. Score we can see that there are a lot of changes. The currencies are grouped together around a level which makes clear to what classification they fit best. All of a sudden 3 currencies seem to belong to different groups. Let´s start with the GBP which we also discussed last week. With the Score of last week it is now having anAverage 13 wks. Score between the Neutral and Weak currencies. It had however 7 times a higher Score compared to the EUR and the CAD. The latter one has become a Weak currency. For now the GBP is classified as a neutral currency. The other 2 changes are the NZD and CAD. Both of them have now an Average 13 wks. Score lower to the EUR which is a weak currency. The NZD and CAD are for that reason now also Weak currencies.



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Classification review

This week we take a look at the Classification changes. As can be seen, the GBP found its way up at the end of March 2017 where it started to show Scores of 3 after only showing Scores of 1 and 2 previously. After that the Scores found their way up in the range of the Strong currencies. The GBP is for that reason now classified as a Neutral currency.
The NZD and CAD are moving in the opposite direction of the GBP. These currencies started to show weakness in the beginning of March 2017 with sometimes showing Scores of 4,5 and 6 but most of the times Scores in the range of the Weak currencies. The NZD and CAD are for that reason now classified as Neutral currencies.
Below you can see the Weekly Currency Score Chart with the 6 months' data as a reference.



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Currency Score Comparison

 "Comparison table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"

The Forex Currency Comparison Table compares each currency with its counterpart based on the Currency Score. For more information about the currency Score of this week, you can read the article "Forex Ranking, Rating and Score" which is published every week together with this article.
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list additionally uses the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.

The information is published once a week and be aware that rates change during this period. The mentioned scores also change and different opportunities may show up. There are many ways to follow the rate changes. This can be done e.g. by looking at the charts and checking e.g. the Ichimoku and/or MACD in the Weekly and Daily chart. There are also many tools, apps and websites where the movement of trading rates of currencies is shown in different automated ways. This may be in pips or through percentage differences or by comparing the values of indicators like the RSI, Moving Averages, MACD, Ichimoku etc. On my blog a Heatmap is available that can be of use also.





"Comparison table" and the "Currency Score Chart"

The additional value of this table compared to the Currency Score table is that the Comparison Table compares the strength between the currencies of each pair. By subtracting the strength of the weaker currency from the stronger currency we have a way to compare each pair combination.
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer-term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clearer.

   1. First of all, only better-classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are Approved when there is a Currency Score difference of at least 1 in the current week.
   2. The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
   3. It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. The classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact at the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies which are similarly classified.
   4. Even though currencies may be in the same classification a currency may be in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the beginning of this article.



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Putting the pieces together

Based on the last "13 Weeks currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the:
CHF, GBP abd USD.
These are Strong or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "13 Weeks currency classification".

For going short the same analysis can be done and the following currencies seem to fit best:
NZD and CAD.
These are Weak or Neutral currencies from a longer term perspective.

Currencies with a high deviation seem less interesting to trade because they are less predictable. A good example now is/are e.g. the:
EUR, AUD and JPY.



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Besides this article, I also use the Forex "Ranking, Rating and Score" which is also available once a week on my blog. In the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" we look in more detail at the absolute position of the currencies and pairs.

It is recommended to read the page "Currency score explained", "Introduction to the FxTaTrader Forex Models" and "Statistics and Probabilities" for a better understanding of the article. If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week.

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DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as a recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk are always yours. Thank you.